The prospects for Namibian independence through the implementation of the United Nations Settlement Plan receded further as South Africa announced its latest intentions for the territory in November 1982. An 'internal settlement', based on the tribal formula favoured by South Africa, and closely controlled by the South African military and intelligence establishment, appeared to be on the cards.
In the event, the term of the National Assembly, which had been due to expire on 21 November 1982, was extended for three months until the end of February 1983. It had previously been renewed for six month periods. At the same time, the South African Prime Minister set yet another ultimatum by announcing that, unless acceptable terms were agreed by the end of February 1983 for the holding of UN-supervised elections, 'an internal election will have to be held to elect proper leaders under new circumstances'. He also announced that the Administrator General, D Hough, would be replaced by Dr Willie van Niekerk, a member of South Africa's President's Council.
There is little doubt that Pretoria is preparing the way for strengthening its military and administrative control in Namibia. International negotiations came to a halt in mid-1982, as a result of South African and American insistence on linking a settlement in Namibia with the withdrawal of Cuban troops from Angola. Concerted efforts by the United States Administration to achieve this goal by exerting strong pressure both on Angola and other African Front Line States have produced no results. During a seven-nation tour of southern Africa in November 1982, the American Vice-President George Bush encountered firm rejection of the idea of 'linkage' in every capital he visited.
The South African Foreign Minister, Pik Botha, gave a clear indication of South Africa's determination to keep control of Namibia in an interview with a representative from the US Heritage Foundation in October 1982. Asked about South Africa's reaction to a possible SWAPO victory in the UN-supervised elections, he stressed: 'South Africa cannot condone the Red Flag in Windhoek. It simply cannot. It is directly contrary to our interests'. South Africa would retain Walvis Bay, which it illegally annexed in 1977 and considers a strategic port. In the event of a SWAPO victory, Walvis Bay would be 'under threat of seizure', Botha said, so South Africa would be forced to plan actions which might cause serious upheaval in southern Africa. He predicted that if Namibia became independent under SWAPO 'the next country to fall would be Botswana. That would leave right around us a stretch of land 1600 km to 2400 km wide, stretching from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean, under direct or indirect communist influence'.
