The withdrawal of South African troops from Angola in August was intended to be the first step in a process leading to the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 435 for Namibian independence on 1 November.
The withdrawal, after negotiations between Angola, Cuba, South Africa and the United States, followed the defeat of the South African invasion of Angola which began in mid-1987. However, by the end of September the negotiations were faced with a deadlock, and there were no indications inside Namibia that South Africa was preparing to end its illegal occupation of the territory.
South Africa's undertaking to withdraw from Angola and to implement Resolution 435 came in an agreement reached on 13 July this year with the other negotiating countries. The agreement also called for the 'redeployment toward the north and the staged and total withdrawal of Cuban troops from ... Angola'. The timetable for the Cuban withdrawal was a source of disagreement at subsequent talks in August and September, and the issue of continuing United States and South African support for UNITA remained unresolved.
After nearly a decade of stalling on the implementation of Resolution 435, the South African government has come under considerable pressure to end its occupation of Namibia and its war against Angola. Its 1987 invasion of Angola, aimed at boosting its protege UNITA force, ground to a halt in October last year near the strategic town of Cuito Cuanavale. Despite repeated infantry assaults, and an armour attack, the South African forces were unable to capture the town.
In May this year the Angolans counter-attacked with Cuban backing, pushing South African forces out of Cunene province and establishing a strong defensive line some 20 to 40 kilometres from the Namibian border. This effectively trapped up to 3,000 South African troops bogged down with heavy artillery and armour near Cuito Cuanavale. They were faced with the choice of surrender or retreat with heavy losses of equipment and men. Pretoria was forced to sue for a ceasefire, which allowed the withdrawal of these troops during August.
The relatively high casualty rate amongst white South African conscripts led to a crisis of confidence in the South African Defence Force among sections of white South African society. Doubts about the Angolan war were raised even in the mouthpiece of the Dutch Reformed Church, Die Kerkbode. The war is estimated by some South African economists to have cost R4 billion a year, an increasing drain on the apartheid regime at a time when the South African economy is in deep trouble.
All South African forces had vacated Angola by 1 September, the agreed deadline. However, the troops were redeployed just across the border in northern Namibia, and further reinforcements were sent into Namibia from South Africa. The main South African logistics base in Namibia, at Grootfontein, was considerably strengthened during July, and other bases, such as Oshivello, were also expanded. There were reports of the mass mobilisation of conscripts in South Africa, many of whom were called up at 24 hours' notice. In early September trains and military convoys of up to 400 vehicles were nightly ferrying armour, artillery and heavy equipment to the north of Namibia.
According to Angolan sources, South African troops in northern Namibia began large-scale military manoeuvres on 2 August, which were due to last for two months. Simultaneously, the South African Navy began its largest-ever exercises off Walvis Bay, Namibia's deep-water port, which Pretoria claims is part of South Africa and not subject to Resolution 435.
The military build-up in Namibia was accompanied by indications from South Africa's Administrator-General in the territory that he intended to consolidate apartheid structures by proceeding with elections to the second-tier or bantustan authorities. It was 'realistic' to suppose that 435 would not be implemented in the near future, he said. Political groups participating in the South African-imposed administration also unveiled proposals for a new constitution, in contravention of Resolution 435.
Elections held under Resolution 435 would be likely to result in a SWAPO government. However, at the end of August, the South African Minister of Defence declared categorically that SWAPO would not rule Namibia. He also cited a number of South African objections to 435.
Despite the lack of any indication that South Africa was preparing to vacate Namibia, the ceasefire between Angolan and South African forces was smoothly implemented in August, and was being monitored by a joint Angolan-South African commission.
Inside Namibia, SWAPO showed its strength through rallies at the end of August to commemorate the launching of the armed struggle. At least 10,000 joined a rally in Windhoek.
