The Namibian independence process, set to begin on 1 April with the arrival in Namibia of the UN Transition Assistance Group (UNTAG), has been threatened by disruptive South African tactics.
A tripartite agreement between South Africa, Angola and Cuba was reached in November and formally signed on 22 December last year. It set 1 April as the date for the implementation of the UN Plan for Namibian independence, as laid out in Security Council Resolution 435 of 1978. At the same time, the Angolan and Cuban governments signed an agreement for the phased withdrawal of Cuban troops from Angola by July 1991: the first contingent was withdrawn on 10 January.
The UN Security Council endorsed the tripartite proposals in January. It instructed the Secretary-General to arrange a formal ceasefire between SWAPO and South Africa. SWAPO implemented an informal ceasefire on 1 September, but South African forces continued operations and the dusk-to-dawn curfew in the main war zone was retained. (UNSCR 629 of 16.1.89)
The UN Plan lays down a seven-month timetable for the removal of South African troops from Namibia, repeal of discriminatory and restrictive legislation, release of political prisoners and detainees, return of exiles and refugees, and national elections under UN supervision leading to the convening of a Constituent Assembly (see COUNTDOWN TO INDEPENDENCE).
UNTAG
The January Security Council resolution authorising the deployment of UNTAG on 1 April was held up by a proposal by the permanent members to reduce the size of UNTAG by more than half as a cost-cutting measure. Other members of the council strongly opposed this on the grounds that the 7,500-strong military component of UNTAG would be hard-pressed to monitor the activities of tens of thousands of South African police and troops in the territory.
The attempt to reduce UNTAG was opposed by SWAPO whose President, Sam Nujoma, said that it 'would make a mockery of UN responsibility and [be] an invitation to South Africa and its surrogates to rig the election'. Although South African troops are to be withdrawn or confined to base before the election, its police forces will continue to operate under UNTAG supervision.
The question of reductions in UNTAG or other cost-cutting measures was referred to the UN Secretary-General. The Security Council also called on South Africa to reduce its police forces, and expressed concern at 'the increase in the police and para-military forces and the establishment of the South West Africa Territory Force (SWATF)' by South Africa. SWATF will be disbanded under the UN Plan.
MILITARY BUILD-UP
Despite its public commitment to implement Resolution 435 on 1 April, South Africa continued its military activities in Namibia in the first weeks of 1989. In a Christmas message to South African troops in Namibia, South Africa's Deputy Minister of Defence declared that it would not be scaling down its operations in the territory. In January, in a telex to the UN Security Council, the Council of Churches in Namibia (CCN) opposed attempts to reduce the size of UNTAG and reported that arms were being cached at strategic points by 'forces unfriendly to Namibian independence'.
On 10 January 2,200 conscripts reported for compulsory military service in SWATF. In terms of Resolution 435, the conscripts would be demobilised on 1 April, although it was reported that military authorities intended sending SWATF officers to South Africa to continue their service.
At the end of 1988 there were persistent reports of troops waging a campaign of intimidation and inducing people to vote against SWAPO in the forthcoming elections.
The SWA Police Training College began the year with a full complement of 75 new recruits. The commanding officer declared that Resolution 435 would not influence the police training programme and that activities would carry on 'as normal'. It was also disclosed that five new police stations were being built in the Ovambo bantustan, the main war zone.
Many of the South African-controlled police in Namibia have been engaged in military operations, although under the UN Plan they will be charged with policing tasks. Much of the active combat against SWAPO during the 1980s has been carried out by the 3,000-strong Counter-Insurgency Unit of the SWA Police, better known as Koevoet, which has also been responsible for widespread atrocities against the civilian population. There have been repeated calls for it to be considered a military rather than a police unit, and to be demobilised accordingly.
In December last year, the South African foreign minister declared that Koevoet would be disbanded 'to create goodwill'. However, in January it was disclosed that Koevoet units were still intact. The troops were being trained in routine police procedures, and commanders indicated that on 1 April they would be transferred to regular units of the South West Africa Police. Some would be assigned to the new police stations in Ovambo.
UNITA, the South African-backed destabilisation force in Angola, was not included in the Angolan-South African ceasefire resulting from the tripartite talks. However, the accord specifies that neither Angola nor South Africa will allow their territories to be used for hostile acts against the other. ANC President, Oliver Tambo, announced on 8 January that ANC military personnel were being moved from Angola. He said that the ANC had taken the decision after consultations with the government of Angola 'so as not to allow the racists and their allies to use the presence of ANC military facilities in Angola as an excuse for blocking or otherwise delaying the process' of Namibian independence. He hailed the tripartite agreement as 'an advance of great strategic significance for our region and for our own struggle'.
However, by the end of January, the South Africa regime had not taken any steps to dismantle UNITA bases in northern Namibia. Reports during November and December indicated that UNITA activity around its bases in the Caprivi Strip of north-eastern Namibia was in fact increasing, and that South Africa was issuing UNITA members with Namibian citizenship documents to enable them to remain in Namibia during the independence process and take part in the election. There could be up to 5,000 UNITA troops in Namibia, but Resolution 435 makes no provision for disarming them.
The Joint Military Monitoring Commission, set up by South Africa and Angola to supervise the ceasefire between the two parties signed in the middle of last year, had by January been unable to function along the Caprivi Strip for fear of UNITA attacks. According to Major Valeriano Martinho, second-in-command of the Angolan contingent on the commission, 'UNITA can do whatever they want [in Caprivi]: take arms into Angola, take arms out, bring men in, bring men out.' UNITA was also being supplied by the United States through Zaire, and the Bush administration declared it would continue support despite the tripartite agreement.
POLITICAL MANOEUVRES
Pretoria has taken a number of other steps which threaten free and fair elections and the future of Namibia. The South African government has laid claim to Walvis Bay, Namibia's only deep-water port, and administers it as part of the Cape Province. In the course of 1988, at least 22 million rand was spent on expanding the extensive military installations in the enclave and the navy held its largest-ever manoeuvres there. SWAPO has warned that many of the troops to be withdrawn from Namibia may simply be moved to Walvis Bay, where they will be a threat during the transition period and after independence.
In early January, the Windhoek Advertiser, a daily paper reflecting the views of the South West African National Party, disclosed a 'highly confidential' plot to have the Rehoboth bantustan in central Namibia declared an 'independent republic' before the implementation of the UN Plan. Rehoboth would thus be 'excluded from the conditions... of 435'. The Rehoboth administration has historically had greater autonomy than other second-tier administrations. There have also been discussions between South African authorities, bantustan officials and others about the possible establishment of another 'republic' in the Eastern Caprivi bantustan in the far north-east of Namibia.
The National Party, which controls the segregated second-tier Administration for Whites, is opposed to Resolution 435 and has called for its own territorial authority. Elections to the Administration for Whites, which should be abolished under the provision of 435 calling for the annulment of all discriminatory legislation, have been scheduled for 1 March. Over 70 per cent of white voters had registered for the election by 4 January.
The National Party, along with the Rehoboth Free Democratic Party, which would be behind any secessionist attempt in Rehoboth, form part of the Multi-Party Conference Administration (MPC), which South Africa set up as a 'transitional government' in 1985. The MPC parties, already demoralised, were thrown into disarray by the agreement to implement the UN Plan, about which they were not consulted.
Reports indicated that Meshak Muyongo, a vice-president of the Democratic Turnhalle Alliance, the largest grouping in the MPC, has been selected by South Africa to lead an armed group which might be set up to destabilise an independent Namibia. Muyongo has previously been involved in secessionist initiatives in the Eastern Caprivi. Officers from the SWATF's 101 Battalion in northern Namibia were also consulted. SWAPO has repeatedly raised the possibility of South Africa setting up a destabilisation force similar to UNITA.
SWAPO, which commands overwhelming support in Namibia, began to gear itself up for elections at the end of last year. Rallies and seminars were held in several towns around Namibia, including towns in the northern war zones such as Katima Mulilo and Rundu. The Council of Churches began preparations to assist up to 100,000 exiles and refugees who are expected to return during the transition to independence.
