The release of Walter Sisulu and other ANC leaders last October encouraged expectations that Nelson Mandela would be released within months. Mandela received visits at Victor Verster prison from representatives of a large number and wide range of organisations and met with government officials including President de Klerk on 13 December. These developments fuelled speculation both over the timing of Mandela's release and his involvement in the broader political process.
Mandela met de Klerk at the presidential offices in Cape Town. Earlier he had met with the former President, P W Botha, last July. The Minister of Justice and other senior cabinet ministers have also visited Mandela over the past three years.
The meeting with de Klerk was attended by the Minister of Constitutional Development, Gerrit Viljoen, and the Minister of Justice, Kobie Coetsee. Coetsee said issues discussed had included 'ways and means of addressing current obstacles in the way of meaningful dialogue' and that similar talks were envisaged in the future. A representative of the Mass Democratic Movement (MDM) said Mandela had informed them in advance of the meeting with de Klerk.
Since August 1987, the regime has emphasised a 'flexible' evaluation of a number of factors in assessing the early release of political prisoners. In Mandela's case the political consequences of his release have become the focus of the government's assessment.
In April President Botha, in a statement taken to indicate a shift in policy, said that Mandela could be released on the basis of a commitment to a 'peaceful settlement of South Africa's future'. This choice of words was interpreted by observers as avoiding the demand that he renounce the armed struggle, a condition which Botha had formerly insisted on. In December, President de Klerk spoke of his release as 'a question of time': at a meeting with the President of Cote d'Ivoire he said 'Mandela will be freed ... as soon as possible.'
Mandela's meetings, with representatives of anti-apartheid organisations and with government officials have been widely interpreted as contributing to the development of conditions which could facilitate talks between Pretoria and the ANC.
Mandela has also had visits from leading representatives of the church, trade unions, the legal profession, the United Democratic Front (UDF) and the MDM, and has met the recently released Pan-Africanist Congress leader, Jafta Masemola amongst others.
At several meetings, including those with leaders of the UDF, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) and with Rev Frank Chikane, Mandela discussed recent government visits. Chikane said Mandela emphasised that he 'was not negotiating with the government' but was acting 'as a facilitator to create conditions conducive for meaningful negotiations'. Sidney Mufamadi, assistant general secretary of COSATU, said Mandela 'is not a go-between but is in a position to meet government officials and to convey their views to our movement'.
Govan Mbeki and Walter Sisulu met with Mandela before their discussions with exiled ANC leaders in Lusaka in January while in December he had talked by telephone with exiled leaders of the ANC, Alfred Nzo and Thabo Mbeki, during a visit they made to Zimbabwe. Ten members of the central executive committee of COSATU, including the president, Elijah Barayi and the general secretary, Jay Naidoo, visited Mandela in December and said he had told them he was satisfied that he could be freed in the present political climate.
Statements by other prominent anti-apartheid activists who visited Mandela emphasised that while he wanted to be released immediately, he viewed his freedom in relation to the release of other political prisoners. An official of COSATU, John Ernstzen, said Mandela referred to 'the release of all political prisoners and the cessation of all political hangings and treason trials'. In January Mandela told visitors from the National Association of Democratic Lawyers (NADEL) that he 'had negotiated for the recent release' of ANC leaders and was 'still negotiating for the release of other political prisoners', especially those serving life sentences. There are at least 15 people sentenced to life imprisonment for political activities.
In January, whilst announcing the UDF's decision to defy the emergency restrictions and to operate as a fully functioning organisation, Murphy Morobe, an official of the MDM, expressed the movement's 'full confidence and support for the various initiatives [Mandela] has been involved in.' The UDF was seeking approval for a visit to Mandela by 22 of its office-bearers and regional representatives.
